HadGEM2 Küresel İklim Modeli Tahminine Dayalı Konya Kapalı Havzası İçin Olası Tarımsal Kurak Dönemleri

Drought is one of the most dangerous natural disasters that can have serious impacts on economy and environmental systems, especially living life. When compared with other disasters, drought has many differences respect to structure. In particular, agricultural droughts cause great costs as well consequences. According IPCC report 2014, Turkey will increase in future temperature scenarios rainfall expected decrease contrast. this situation taken into consideration, it estimated duration severity likely be experienced throughout our country increase. The determination are occur affects not only sustainable production but also all areas. study, monthly series up 2100 under optimistic (RCP 4.5) pessimistic 8.5) conditions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) HADGEM2 global climate model for Konya Closed Basin were used. obtained analysis Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). As a result SPI, was detected 4 periods (2043-2044, 2046-2047, 2086-2087 2090-2091) RCP 4.5 scenario. 8.5 scenario, (2060-2062, 2072-2074, 2092-2094 2095-2097). distribution maps prepare determined basin. It should precautions time against water deficit which may Basin. addition, losses minimized by preparing management plans. Measures reduce effects directly contribute regional producer country.